MARKET OUTLOOK – 08 Mar, 2017

For The Second Time, A Nifty Breakout Stalls, Does Not Give Follow Through; Ten Days Of Narrow Range In Nifty Suggest Big Move Is Imminent; Traders Should Stay Neutral, Wait Patiently For Index To Show A Direction.

daily market research analysis

NIFTY:

GETTING READY FOR A BIG MOVE

The Nifty has been trading in a narrow range for ten trading days. This range is likely to be broken one way or the other, soon enough.

The boundaries are:

Support at 8860. A break below is short term bearish.

Resistance at 8980. A break above is short term bullish.

The breakout is likely to coincide with the UP election exit poll and / or election results.

Anticipating an election outcome can be profitable if the trade is on the right side.

This is how we are approaching the results:

Bullish. Mr Modi waves a wand, gets UP. Markets are likely to rally. This outcome is not certain as of now; hence markets may not have discounted a victory.

Neutral. Mr Modi’s party registers gains but does not win a majority. Neither does any other party, giving a hung assembly. This is what the markets are guessing at: nothing changes, the uptrend remains intact.

Neutral. Any of the two opposition alliances win a majority. We feel this will have no adverse affect on the market. The opposition controls UP now, and, it will do so after the elections. Nothing has changed. The victory of opposition is in a state election. People will vote differently when national elections are held.

Thus, of the three outcomes, one is bullish while two are neutral. This is a good scenario for taking a bullish bet.

BANK NIFTY:

Bank Nifty had a choppy day in the market; prices started with a minor gap up at 20667 and initial upside momentum took prices at day’s high of 20700 where it found intraday resistance again (like yesterday).

A dip after that, forced prices lower and then went into a narrow range.

Eventually, prices closed at 20631.20.30 with minor loss of 36 points. On the daily charts, Bank Nifty, has made another NR7 pattern (three in last nine sessions), is still hovering inside a trading range (20400 – 21100).

We may see directional move once price crosses these levels successfully. Therefore;

Buy if Bank Nifty breaks above 21100; OR; Sell if a price breaks below 20400.

If index opens beyond this range then apply the 15 min rule. Take one trade only whichever executes first and stops in either case would come at 20750.

TECHNICAL PICKS

COMPANY NAME CMP B/S RATIONALE
BAJAJFINANCE 1053 BUY Intermediate trend is up in BAJFINANCE. The stock has seen an upside rally and then started a minor correction. Prices are now finding support near 1035. We may see an upside rally here. Buy this stock above 1055. If this trade executes then place your stop just below 1035 and a target near 1095.
TCS 2505 BUY Intermediate and short term trend is up in TCS. The stock is consolidating at its top. Prices are now at the verge of breakout from an ascending triangle. We may see an upside rally here. Buy this stock above 2510. If this trade executes then place your stop just below 2480 and a target near 2570.

DERIVATIVE PICKS

Stock Name Strike Price Buy/Sell CMP Initiation Stop Loss Target Remarks
ONGC MAR FUT BUY 197.3 CMP 194 202-205 OI Increase
Long Buildup Short Buildup
Stocks Price Price% OI % OI Stocks Price Price% OI % OI
JUSTDIAL.17.03 Mar 589.4 9.11 31.53 3068400 RCOM.17.03 Mar 36.3 -3.84 4.27 1.1E+08
ADANIPOWER.17.03 Mar 40.7 5.03 2.47 1.32E+08 HINDZINC.17.03 Mar 297.1 -3.52 18.88 8342400
KSCL.17.03 Mar 524.4 4.51 19.71 4173000 SAIL.17.03 Mar 60.55 -3.12 6 51060000
MINDTREE.17.03 Mar 481 4.09 3.65 3002400 HINDALCO.17.03 Mar 194.4 -2.85 6.12 47645500
L&TFH.17.03 Mar 120.6 3.65 13.87 20313000 VEDL.17.03 Mar 261.75 -2.22 8.25 40904500
                                                                           Short covering                                                                               Long Unwinding
ADANIENT.17.03 Mar 2.6 -0.92 20704000 98.5 JPASSOCIAT.17.03 Mar 15.25 -1.93 -0.46 1.47E+08
ONGC.17.03 Mar 1.23 -1.25 39573750 197.25 SINTEX.17.03 Mar 97.75 -1.56 -0.94 39251625
BPCL.17.03 Mar 0.96 -1.06 17056800 646.1 CAIRN.17.03 Mar 290.3 -1.46 -0.88 25707500
TATACHEM.17.03 Mar 0.92 -3.71 3657000 575.15 JINDALSTEL.17.03 Mar 124.9 -1.23 -1.41 39735000
BIOCON.17.03 Mar 0.8 -0.64 3081000 1083.5 ORIENTBANK.17.03 Mar 123.5 -1.2 -0.12 14796000

TOP DELIVERY PERCENTAGE

Stocks Price %Chg Vol Delivery Del % % Change
Sectors Price Change % Quantity
United Breweries Limited 779.95 0.19 61818 419008 92.04 Nifty 50 8946.9 -0.18 81159
Mah & Mah Ltd. 1320.25 -0.72 678826 1080213 81.99 Nifty Bank 20627.5 -0.17 81159
Kotak Mahindra Bank Limi 817 -0.24 949754 1129485 78.46 Nifty IT 10799.1 0.19 81159
ITC Ltd. 264.25 0.06 6917130 7452162 77.96 INDIA VIX 13.88 1.72 81159
Dabur India Ltd. 276.05 -0.65 1057609 691806 76.66 Nifty Pharma 10560.9 -0.49 81159
Tata Motors DVR  A  Ord 282.7 0 3070484 2814272 75.84 Nifty Infrastructure 3006.2 0.1 81159
Godrej Cons Products Ltd 1636.2 1.18 325550 243895 75.49 Nifty Auto 9753.55 -0.47 81159
Tata Power Co. Ltd. 83 0.67 7309780 3540355 75.22 Nifty Metal 3133.45 -1.75 81159
HDFC Bank Ltd. 1386.2 0.39 778219 690390 75.06 Nifty Commodities 3420.1 -0.28 81156
OIL 335.05 -0.98 629115 595556 74.97 Nifty Financial Services 8283.45 -0.12 81171

UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

                                      Domestic
•IIP Data (YoY) on 10th March, 2017.

•WPI Data on (Feb) YoY on 14th March , 2017.

BOARD MEETINGS

Company Name Purpose Meeting Date Company Name Purpose Meeting Date
FAIRCHEM Others 9-Mar-17 PILITA Meeting Updates 11-Mar-17
SHILPAMED Dividend 9-Mar-17 BEARDSELL Dividend 13-Mar-17
MOTOGENFIN Others 9-Mar-17 SUNCLAYLTD Board meeting Rescheduled 13-Mar-17
GILLANDERS Others 9-Mar-17 BANKBARODA Board Meeting Postponed 14-Mar-17
SATIN Issue of Securities 10-Mar-17 NET4 Board Meeting Adjourned 14-Mar-17
SUNTV Dividend 10-Mar-17 BEARDSELL Stock split 15-Mar-17
LAKPRE Results 11-Mar-17 SGFL Board Meeting Adjourned 15-Mar-17

CORPORATE ACTION

Company Name Purpose Ex-Date Company Name Purpose Ex-Date
TEJNAKSH Bonus issue 1:1 8-Mar-17 SOTL Interim Dividend – Rs. – 13.5000 9-Mar-17
GAIL Bonus issue 1:3 9-Mar-17 VIAANINDUS Stock  Split From Rs.10/- to Rs.1/- 9-Mar-17
HARITASEAT Interim Dividend – Rs. – 3.0000 9-Mar-17 ZYDUSWELL Interim Dividend – Rs. – 6.5000 9-Mar-17
HDFC Interim Dividend – Rs. – 3.0000 9-Mar-17 BHAGYNAGAR Reduction of Capital 10-Mar-17
KINGFA Right Issue of Equity Shares 9-Mar-17 BHAGYNAGAR Spin Off 10-Mar-17
KOTAKNIFTY Dividend On Mutual Fund 9-Mar-17 MIENT Bonus issue 1:1 10-Mar-17
KTKSENSEX Dividend On Mutual Fund 9-Mar-17 COALINDIA Interim Dividend – Rs. – 18.7500 14-Mar-17
NATIONALUM Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.8000 9-Mar-17 DICIND Dividend – Rs. – 4.0000 14-Mar-17
PHILIPCARB Interim Dividend – Rs. – 6.0000 9-Mar-17 EMAMILTD Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.7500 14-Mar-17

DISCLOSURE IN PURSUANCE OF SECTION 19 OF SEBI (RA) REGULATION 2014

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