For The Second Time, A Nifty Breakout Stalls, Does Not Give Follow Through
MARKET OUTLOOK – 08 Mar, 2017
For The Second Time, A Nifty Breakout Stalls, Does Not Give Follow Through; Ten Days Of Narrow Range In Nifty Suggest Big Move Is Imminent; Traders Should Stay Neutral, Wait Patiently For Index To Show A Direction.
GETTING READY FOR A BIG MOVE
The Nifty has been trading in a narrow range for ten trading days. This range is likely to be broken one way or the other, soon enough.
The boundaries are:
Support at 8860. A break below is short term bearish.
Resistance at 8980. A break above is short term bullish.
The breakout is likely to coincide with the UP election exit poll and / or election results.
Anticipating an election outcome can be profitable if the trade is on the right side.
This is how we are approaching the results:
Bullish. Mr Modi waves a wand, gets UP. Markets are likely to rally. This outcome is not certain as of now; hence markets may not have discounted a victory.
Neutral. Mr Modi’s party registers gains but does not win a majority. Neither does any other party, giving a hung assembly. This is what the markets are guessing at: nothing changes, the uptrend remains intact.
Neutral. Any of the two opposition alliances win a majority. We feel this will have no adverse affect on the market. The opposition controls UP now, and, it will do so after the elections. Nothing has changed. The victory of opposition is in a state election. People will vote differently when national elections are held.
Thus, of the three outcomes, one is bullish while two are neutral. This is a good scenario for taking a bullish bet.
Bank Nifty had a choppy day in the market; prices started with a minor gap up at 20667 and initial upside momentum took prices at day’s high of 20700 where it found intraday resistance again (like yesterday).
A dip after that, forced prices lower and then went into a narrow range.
Eventually, prices closed at 20631.20.30 with minor loss of 36 points. On the daily charts, Bank Nifty, has made another NR7 pattern (three in last nine sessions), is still hovering inside a trading range (20400 – 21100).
We may see directional move once price crosses these levels successfully. Therefore;
Buy if Bank Nifty breaks above 21100; OR; Sell if a price breaks below 20400.
If index opens beyond this range then apply the 15 min rule. Take one trade only whichever executes first and stops in either case would come at 20750.
|BAJAJFINANCE||1053||BUY||Intermediate trend is up in BAJFINANCE. The stock has seen an upside rally and then started a minor correction. Prices are now finding support near 1035. We may see an upside rally here. Buy this stock above 1055. If this trade executes then place your stop just below 1035 and a target near 1095.|
|TCS||2505||BUY||Intermediate and short term trend is up in TCS. The stock is consolidating at its top. Prices are now at the verge of breakout from an ascending triangle. We may see an upside rally here. Buy this stock above 2510. If this trade executes then place your stop just below 2480 and a target near 2570.|
|Stock Name||Strike Price||Buy/Sell||CMP||Initiation||Stop Loss||Target||Remarks|
|ONGC||MAR FUT||BUY||197.3||CMP||194||202-205||OI Increase|
|Long Buildup||Short Buildup|
|Stocks||Price||Price%||OI %||OI||Stocks||Price||Price%||OI %||OI|
|JUSTDIAL.17.03 Mar||589.4||9.11||31.53||3068400||RCOM.17.03 Mar||36.3||-3.84||4.27||1.1E+08|
|ADANIPOWER.17.03 Mar||40.7||5.03||2.47||1.32E+08||HINDZINC.17.03 Mar||297.1||-3.52||18.88||8342400|
|KSCL.17.03 Mar||524.4||4.51||19.71||4173000||SAIL.17.03 Mar||60.55||-3.12||6||51060000|
|MINDTREE.17.03 Mar||481||4.09||3.65||3002400||HINDALCO.17.03 Mar||194.4||-2.85||6.12||47645500|
|L&TFH.17.03 Mar||120.6||3.65||13.87||20313000||VEDL.17.03 Mar||261.75||-2.22||8.25||40904500|
|Short covering||Long Unwinding|
|ADANIENT.17.03 Mar||2.6||-0.92||20704000||98.5||JPASSOCIAT.17.03 Mar||15.25||-1.93||-0.46||1.47E+08|
|ONGC.17.03 Mar||1.23||-1.25||39573750||197.25||SINTEX.17.03 Mar||97.75||-1.56||-0.94||39251625|
|BPCL.17.03 Mar||0.96||-1.06||17056800||646.1||CAIRN.17.03 Mar||290.3||-1.46||-0.88||25707500|
|TATACHEM.17.03 Mar||0.92||-3.71||3657000||575.15||JINDALSTEL.17.03 Mar||124.9||-1.23||-1.41||39735000|
|BIOCON.17.03 Mar||0.8||-0.64||3081000||1083.5||ORIENTBANK.17.03 Mar||123.5||-1.2||-0.12||14796000|
TOP DELIVERY PERCENTAGE
|Stocks||Price||%Chg||Vol||Delivery||Del %||% Change|
|United Breweries Limited||779.95||0.19||61818||419008||92.04||Nifty 50||8946.9||-0.18||81159|
|Mah & Mah Ltd.||1320.25||-0.72||678826||1080213||81.99||Nifty Bank||20627.5||-0.17||81159|
|Kotak Mahindra Bank Limi||817||-0.24||949754||1129485||78.46||Nifty IT||10799.1||0.19||81159|
|ITC Ltd.||264.25||0.06||6917130||7452162||77.96||INDIA VIX||13.88||1.72||81159|
|Dabur India Ltd.||276.05||-0.65||1057609||691806||76.66||Nifty Pharma||10560.9||-0.49||81159|
|Tata Motors DVR A Ord||282.7||0||3070484||2814272||75.84||Nifty Infrastructure||3006.2||0.1||81159|
|Godrej Cons Products Ltd||1636.2||1.18||325550||243895||75.49||Nifty Auto||9753.55||-0.47||81159|
|Tata Power Co. Ltd.||83||0.67||7309780||3540355||75.22||Nifty Metal||3133.45||-1.75||81159|
|HDFC Bank Ltd.||1386.2||0.39||778219||690390||75.06||Nifty Commodities||3420.1||-0.28||81156|
|OIL||335.05||-0.98||629115||595556||74.97||Nifty Financial Services||8283.45||-0.12||81171|
UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA
|•IIP Data (YoY) on 10th March, 2017.
•WPI Data on (Feb) YoY on 14th March , 2017.
|Company Name||Purpose||Meeting Date||Company Name||Purpose||Meeting Date|
|MOTOGENFIN||Others||9-Mar-17||SUNCLAYLTD||Board meeting Rescheduled||13-Mar-17|
|GILLANDERS||Others||9-Mar-17||BANKBARODA||Board Meeting Postponed||14-Mar-17|
|SATIN||Issue of Securities||10-Mar-17||NET4||Board Meeting Adjourned||14-Mar-17|
|LAKPRE||Results||11-Mar-17||SGFL||Board Meeting Adjourned||15-Mar-17|
|Company Name||Purpose||Ex-Date||Company Name||Purpose||Ex-Date|
|TEJNAKSH||Bonus issue 1:1||8-Mar-17||SOTL||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 13.5000||9-Mar-17|
|GAIL||Bonus issue 1:3||9-Mar-17||VIAANINDUS||Stock Split From Rs.10/- to Rs.1/-||9-Mar-17|
|HARITASEAT||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 3.0000||9-Mar-17||ZYDUSWELL||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 6.5000||9-Mar-17|
|HDFC||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 3.0000||9-Mar-17||BHAGYNAGAR||Reduction of Capital||10-Mar-17|
|KINGFA||Right Issue of Equity Shares||9-Mar-17||BHAGYNAGAR||Spin Off||10-Mar-17|
|KOTAKNIFTY||Dividend On Mutual Fund||9-Mar-17||MIENT||Bonus issue 1:1||10-Mar-17|
|KTKSENSEX||Dividend On Mutual Fund||9-Mar-17||COALINDIA||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 18.7500||14-Mar-17|
|NATIONALUM||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.8000||9-Mar-17||DICIND||Dividend – Rs. – 4.0000||14-Mar-17|
|PHILIPCARB||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 6.0000||9-Mar-17||EMAMILTD||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.7500||14-Mar-17|
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