MARKET OUTLOOK 10 Mar, 2017

Trading Range Persists In Nifty, Markets Have Paused From Last Three Weeks; A Breakout From The Range Is Imminent – May Come About Next Week With Exit Polls And Actual Results Acting As Catalyst.

market research analysis

NIFTY:

Thursday saw trading inside a narrow range – this suggests a thrusting move is coming tomorrow or early next week. Nifty support comes around 8860; breakdown below the support may lead to a deeper correction.

For more than three weeks, the nifty has been trading in a narrow range. The range is now clearly visible with support at 8860 and resistance at 8980, giving a width of 120 points for the range.

Price movement in the initial weeks of March (for the nifty) has been very narrow – just 130 points. This contraction in the weekly range points towards a big thrusting move in the next few weeks of the month. On the daily charts an inside day pattern is formed on the Japanese candlestick charts. Narrow price action from the last few days suggests a directional move is very near.

A trading range that develops after a sustained up move should eventually resolve itself into another breakout on the upside. This is the principle that we go by.

However, as traders, we have to be prepared for any eventuality.

For our trading, we maintain existing long positions but do not add more until the Nifty breaks above 9000. At this point, we do not have any patterns that suggest going short. As new patterns emerge, there may come about a change in our analysis, but that is in the future with a big IF..

BANK NIFTY:

Bank Nifty traded narrow but with some positive bias as prices recovered from a gap down of 70 points. Index opened near 20620 but went through a sharp rally and then into a trading range. However, after lunch prices again broke out and made an intraday high near 20780. Eventually, index closed at 20730.45 with a gain of minor 40 points in upper side of today’s narrow range (180 points).

On the daily charts, Bank Nifty is still moving inside a trading range (20400 – 21100). Furthermore, from last five days, index has witnessed a narrow price movement (contraction) inside 350 points. This may signal an expansion in the Bank Nifty very soon.

Therefore traders should prepare to take a trade beyond the above mentioned trading range;

Buy if Bank Nifty breaks above 21100; OR; Sell if a price breaks below 20400.

If index opens beyond this range then apply the 15 min rule. Take one trade only whichever executes first and stop in either case would come at 20750

 TECHNICAL PICKS

COMPANY NAME CMP B/S RATIONALE
ABIRLANUVO 1468 BUY Intermediate trend is up in ABIRLANUVO. The stock has seen an upside rally and then a minor correction. Prices are now trading very narrow suggests a breakout is very near. Buy this stock above 1470. If this trade executes then place your stop just below 1450 and a target near 1510.
TATACOMM 753 BUY Intermediate and short term trend is up in TATACOMM. The stock has seen an upside rally and then started trading range bound. Prices are now at the verge of breakout. Buy this stock above 755. If this trade executes then place your stop just below 745 and a target near 775.

DERIVATIVE PICKS

Stock Name Strike Price Buy/Sell CMP Initiation Stop Loss Target Remarks
YES BANK MAR FUT BUY 1482.5 CMP 1470 1500-1520 OI Increase
Long Buildup Short Buildup
Stocks Price Price% OI % OI   Stocks Price Price% OI % OI
BHARATFIN.17.03 Mar 857.5 4.46 12.74 16635000 RCOM.17.03 Mar 34.45 -5.36 10.02 1.19E+08
DIVISLAB.17.03 Mar 777.5 2.78 3.31 5539800 ADANIPOWER.17.03 Mar 38.65 -4.92 2.73 1.33E+08
BOSCHLTD.17.03 Mar 22007.15 2.37 2.43 91825 NMDC.17.03 Mar 137.25 -4.85 9.48 21132000
OFSS.17.03 Mar 3845.05 2.11 2.46 256350 ADANIENT.17.03 Mar 94.6 -3.91 1.58 20600000
JETAIRWAYS.17.03 Mar 447.75 2 27.6 7005000 VEDL.17.03 Mar 252.85 -3.44 13.76 44044000
                                                                           Short covering                                                                               Long Unwinding
UPL.17.03 Mar 0.33 -0.36 6566400 708 JINDALSTEL.17.03 Mar 121.8 -2.64 -1.05 39078000
CIPLA.17.03 Mar 0.19 -0.99 6817000 592.5 MINDTREE.17.03 Mar 472.2 -1.88 -1.72 2806800
AJANTPHARM.17.03 Mar 0.16 -0.63 505600 1719.05 RELINFRA.17.03 Mar 572.4 -1.56 -0.18 7306000
GRANULES.17.03 Mar 0.08 -1.29 14540000 130.3 HEXAWARE.17.03 Mar 222.9 -1.35 -2.14 4386000
MRF.17.03 Mar 51699.95 -1.28 -2.58 53790

TOP DELIVERY PERCENTAGE

Stocks Price %Chg Vol Delivery Del % % Change
Sectors Price Change % Quantity
Britannia Ind Ltd. 3085.4 0.86 263476 155564 84.72   Nifty 50 8924.3 -0.25 86334
GAIL (India) Limited 518.75 -1.17 16315865 7194315 83.72 Nifty Bank 20676.55 0.24 86334
IndusInd Bank Ltd. 1327.35 -0.26 1492895 1046869 81.26 Nifty IT 10739.45 -0.55 86334
Kirloskar Cummins Ltd. 862.35 -0.19 288776 92784 80.74   INDIA VIX 14.07 1.4 86337
Dabur India Ltd. 274.95 -0.4 1164236 842134 79.63   Nifty Pharma 10584.35 0.22 86337
HDFC Ltd. 1367.7 0.17 2330472 1187910 78.81   Nifty Realty 198.8 -1.39 86340
Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. 374.75 -1.04 3072776 2489270 77.64   Nifty Infrastructure 2986.95 -0.64 86343
Colgate Palmolive (India 933.75 0.7 574423 472059 74.4   Nifty Auto 9701.25 -0.54 86343
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 871.3 -0.09 689050 427126 73.49   Nifty Metal 3073.4 -1.92 86343
TECH MAHINDRA LIMITED 491.9 -1.61 1430424 2348140 72.9   Nifty Commodities 3384 -1.06 86346

UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

                                      Domestic
•IIP Data (YoY) on 10th March, 2017.

•WPI Data on (Feb) YoY on 14th March , 2017.

CORPORATE NEWS

•Maruti Suzuki is gearing up to introduce four new products next fiscal. Out of the four  two will be new models and two will be upgrades.

•Power Finance Corp today said that it has sanctioned financial assistance of Rs 2,703 crore for West Bengal’s first super critical thermal power project in Murshidabad district.

•Cadila Healthcare  has finalised a pact with Supernus Pharmaceuticals to settle patent litigation regarding Trokendi XR extended-release capsules, used for treatment of seizures.

•Jain Irrigation has bagged an order worth Rs 189 crore for development of micro irrigation systems network in Rajasthan.

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard

BOARD MEETINGS

Company Name Purpose Meeting Date Company Name Purpose Meeting Date
SATIN Issue of Securities 10-Mar-17 PALREDTEC Preferential issue 13-Mar-17
SUNTV Dividend 10-Mar-17 PNEUMATIC Dividend 13-Mar-17
COFFEEDAY Issue of Securities 11-Mar-17 BANKBARODA Board Meeting Postponed 14-Mar-17
PILITA Meeting Updates 11-Mar-17 ORBITCORP Others 14-Mar-17
LAKPRE Results 11-Mar-17 NET4 Board Meeting Adjourned 14-Mar-17
BEARDSELL Dividend 13-Mar-17 FAIRCHEM Board meeting Rescheduled 14-Mar-17
SUNCLAYLTD Board meeting Rescheduled 13-Mar-17 BEARDSELL Stock split 15-Mar-17

CORPORATE ACTION

Company Name Purpose Meeting Date Company Name Purpose Meeting Date
SATIN Issue of Securities 10-Mar-17 PALREDTEC Preferential issue 13-Mar-17
SUNTV Dividend 10-Mar-17 PNEUMATIC Dividend 13-Mar-17
COFFEEDAY Issue of Securities 11-Mar-17 BANKBARODA Board Meeting Postponed 14-Mar-17
PILITA Meeting Updates 11-Mar-17 ORBITCORP Others 14-Mar-17
LAKPRE Results 11-Mar-17 NET4 Board Meeting Adjourned 14-Mar-17
BEARDSELL Dividend 13-Mar-17 FAIRCHEM Board meeting Rescheduled 14-Mar-17
SUNCLAYLTD Board meeting Rescheduled 13-Mar-17 BEARDSELL Stock split 15-Mar-17

DISCLOSURE IN PURSUANCE OF SECTION 19 OF SEBI (RA) REGULATION 2014

Elite Wealth Advisors Limited does/does not do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should be aware that the Elite Wealth Advisors Limited may/may not have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as read more


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