Market  Outlook – 16 Feb 2017

Markets Decline; Nifty Closes Below 8760 – 8820 Narrow Trading Range; Suggesting At Least The Short Term Trend May Have Changed To Down; Avoid Long Positions; Look For Shorting Opportunity.

market outlook 16 Feb 2017

NIFTYIt was a down day in Nifty, Bank Nifty. After the flat opening it closed near day’s low. It continued falling lower in a staircase pattern throughout the day.  Feeble attempts to recover were used by bears to fresh shorts. It Seems intraday price action was as bearish as it can be. So all long bets should be off (if any) for the time being.

A Narrow trading range of almost seven trading days has seen a breakdown today and the index closes below this trading range. The Nifty bank did not participate in today’s decline as it remains inside the range.

The Nifty short term trend is down. All said and done, we are in a correction. We have to take short term trades in the downside direction and wait patiently for this correction to end, before we begin buying.

Our short position triggers today and we should maintain this trade with suggested stop. Today breakdown was not very decisive so we should wait for a follow through on downside to confirm this breakdown..

BANK NIFTYBANK NIFTY opens near 20282 near yesterday close. Prices have seen a decline today and close lower 20200 with a loss of 100 points.

The index continues trading narrow and range bound inside 20000 – 20400. NIFTY has broken on downside so we are expecting the BANK NIFTY may also follow the NIFTY and breaks the range on downside.

Yesterday we had discussed three scenarios;

Prices breaks above 20400 then we will buy with a stop just below 20100.

Prices breaks below 20000 then we will sell with a stop just above 20300.

Prices remain trading inside 20000 – 20400 then we will avoid trading.

These are still valid and we are advising our readers to follow these and trade accordingly.

We are now in a phase of contraction and sooner we may see an expansion in either side of the market

TECHNICAL PICKS

COMPANY NAME CMP B/S RATIONALE
AMARAJABAT 849 SELL Intermediate and short term trend is down in AMARAJABAT. The stock has seen a decline and then broken on downside. We may see a decline here. Sell this stock below 848. If this trade executes then place your stop just above 860 and a target near 824.
TATASTEEL 460 SELL Intermediate trend is sideways in TATASTEEL. The stock has seen an upside rally and then started a process of consolidation. Prices are now at the verge of breakdown from a bearish head & shoulder. Sell this stock below 460. If this trade executes then place your stop just above 465 and a target near 450.

DERIVATIVE PICKS

Stock Name Strike Price Buy/Sell CMP Initiation Stop Loss Target Remarks
Long Buildup Short Buildup
Stocks Price Price% OI % OI   Stocks Price Price% OI % OI
IGL.17.02 Feb 1052.65 2.49 10.5 2349600 TATAMTRDVR.17.02 Feb 269 -10.35 14.73 20162100
ADANIENT.17.02 Feb 92.45 1.43 6.36 23408000 TATAMOTORS.17.02 Feb 438.2 -9.84 17.46 45571500
ZEEL.17.02 Feb 521.65 1.33 2.59 7924800 HDIL.17.02 Feb 63.15 -7.81 27.53 31424000
ITC.17.02 Feb 275.35 1.27 9.98 48669600 DLF.17.02 Feb 136.6 -7.58 2.06 34720000
INFRATEL.17.02 Feb 322.95 1.13 2.4 7438400 IDFC.17.02 Feb 52.35 -5.08 5.78 80744400
Short Covering Long Unwinding
Stocks Price Price% OI OI%   Stocks Price Price% OI OI%
NIFTYINFRA.17.02 Feb 2817 4.1 -53.33 1575 JPASSOCIAT.17.02 Feb 12.15 -7.25 -4.61 125188000
NIFTYPSE.17.02 Feb 3185 2.81 -39.29 3400 RCOM.17.02 Feb 32.35 -6.37 -0.98 104352000
JINDALSTEL.17.02 Feb 90.65 2.66 -0.74 48150000 NIFTYMID50.17.02 Feb 4010 -5.62 -50 200
BEL.17.02 Feb 1525.9 0.7 -1.78 2489850 PCJEWELLER.17.02 Feb 368.2 -4.6 -4.4 1237500
DJIA.17.02 Feb 20500 0.59 -6.21 19020 GMRINFRA.17.02 Feb 13.65 -4.55 -0.64 166860000

TOP DELIVERY PERCENTAGE

Stocks Price %Chg Vol Delivery Del % % Change
Sectors Price Change % Quantity
DRREDDY 2911.35 -1.02 191099 226735 80.77   NiftyMedia 2993.4 -0.01 99615
HDFC 1399.15 0.07 2323380 1248098 79.8 NiftyMetal 3011.25 -1.45 99615
NTPC 169.05 -1.05 3825977 3295746 76.44 NftyInfra 3002 -1.24 99615
ITC 273.4 0.96 7537315 4959866 74.52   NiftyBank 20163.7 -0.47 99615
INFY 981.8 -0.6 3629743 3466290 74.23   NiftyAuto 9523.35 -3.03 99615
TORNTPHARM 1231.4 -2.25 212805 106380 73.67   NiftyComm 3319.75 -1.16 99615
COLPAL 883.15 0.15 216902 174534 73.5   NiftyFMCG 22674.4 0.35 99615
KOTAKBANK 784.3 -0.76 1360744 979118 73.12   NftyEnrgy 10648.75 -0.75 99615
TCS 2413.7 0.31 962486 735744 72.37   NftyPSUBk 3259.8 -1.46 99615
POWERGRID 201.45 0.3 4107574 3800208 71.85   NiftyIT 10427.65 -0.44 99615

UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA

                                      Domestic                                                                                                              
•Quarterly GDP (Q4) (YoY) on 28th Feb, 2017.

•IIP Data (YoY)  on 10th March, 2017.

 

CORPORATE NEWS

•Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Limited and Aurobindo Pharma Limited have separately started recalling few quantities of two different drugs from the US market as they are found to be not up to the mark.

• DLF’s net debt rose by Rs 1,257 crore to Rs 24,397 crore in the third quarter of the current fiscal as its cash-flows were hit due to fall in housing sales amid negative sentiment in the property market post demonetisation.

•Dassault has signed the joint venture with Reliance Defence for Rafale offset obligations. In January, Competition Commission of India had approved the proposed joint venture between Anil Ambani-led group firm Reliance Aerostructure and Rafale-maker Dassault Aviation.

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard

BOARD MEETINGS

Company Name Purpose Meeting Date Company Name Purpose Meeting Date
MBECL Raising of Funds 17-Feb-17 CASTROLIND Results/Dividend 21-Feb-17
VALECHAENG Scheme of Arrangement 17-Feb-17 PAPERPROD Results/Dividend 21-Feb-17
SUNDARMFIN Dividend 17-Feb-17 ITDCEM Results/Dividend 21-Feb-17
MIC Others 18-Feb-17 NET4 Results 21-Feb-17
ROHLTD Dividend 18-Feb-17 KAMATHOTEL Board Meeting Postponed 21-Feb-17
MALWACOTT Board Meeting Postponed 18-Feb-17 EIDPARRY Dividend 21-Feb-17
AMBUJACEM Results/Dividend 20-Feb-17 EMCO Board Meeting Postponed 23-Feb-17
VBL Results/Others 20-Feb-17 SOTL Dividend 23-Feb-17
KSBPUMPS Results/Dividend 20-Feb-17 RAIN Results 23-Feb-17

CORPORATE ACTION

Company Name Purpose Ex-Date Company Name Purpose Ex-Date
AMRUTANJAN Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.1000 16-Feb-17 MINDAIND Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.2000 16-Feb-17
AVTNPL Interim Dividend – Rs. – 0.2000 16-Feb-17 PAGEIND Interim Dividend – Rs. – 25.0000 16-Feb-17
BHARATFORG Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.5000 16-Feb-17 POWERGRID Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.0000 16-Feb-17
BOSCHLTD Interim Dividend – Rs. – 75.0000 16-Feb-17 SELAN Interim Dividend – Rs. – 5.0000 16-Feb-17
COMPUAGE Stock  Split From Rs.10/- to Rs.2/- 16-Feb-17 SHBCL Interim Dividend – Rs. – 0.2500 16-Feb-17
JAYAGROGN Interim Dividend – Rs. – 5.0000 16-Feb-17 SNL Interim Dividend – Rs. – 3.0000 16-Feb-17
KALECONSUL Interim Dividend – Rs. – 11.0000 16-Feb-17 SOUTHBANK Right Issue of Equity Shares 16-Feb-17
MANAPPURAM Interim Dividend – Rs. – 0.5000 16-Feb-17 STERTOOLS Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.0000 16-Feb-17
MENONBE Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.0000 16-Feb-17 TAKE Interim Dividend – Rs. – 0.3000 16-Feb-17

DISCLOSURE IN PURSUANCE OF SECTION 19 OF SEBI (RA) REGULATION 2014

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