Seven Days Of Narrow Range in Nifty; Short Term Trend Becomes Sideways
Market Outlook – 15 Feb 2017
Seven Days Of Narrow Range In Nifty; Short Term Trend Becomes Sideways; Nifty, Nifty Bank Are Getting Ready For Big Move – Direction Could Be Up Or Down; Keep Positions Low; Follow The Direction Of Breakout When It Happens; It Stocks May Outperform;
NIFTY: Contraction is the period when markets move in narrow ranges, not sure where they actually want to go. Because markets are uncertain, there is little activity. This is how a trading range develops. Markets take lot of time developing these ranges. Most of the market’s time is spent in contraction – inside trading ranges.
This is what happening now in the NIFTY. The index is trading very narrow from last seven trading days. The index has locked inside 60 point range from 8760 – 8820.
At some point markets decide to move out of trading range – thus starting a period of expansion. The process of expansion takes very little time. A Market may spend 20 days in contraction, moving within 100 points. It may breakout of this range, and, moves 200 points in just five days.
This is what we are expecting now – a sharp movement in either side of the market. Our point is contraction uses up a lot of time with little movement. Expansion provides big moves in very little time.
From here there are three scenarios are likely;
(a) Prices breaks above 8820,
(b) Prices breaks below 8760, and,
(c) Prices remain inside 8760 – 8820.
Our View:: With very narrow price movement we do not have a clear view. Thus we are advising our readers to follow the range breakout. As of now short term trend is sideways.
BANK NIFTY: BANK NIFTY opens with a gap up of almost 50 points. The index made its high near its open at 20314 and then moves down. Prices made its day low near 20158 and closes near the mid range of the day at 20256 near yesterday close.
The index continues trading narrow and the range also narrowing day by day. Markets go through the cycle of contraction and expansion. The index is consolidating from last eight trading days. This is contraction so after contraction we should expect an expansion on either side of the market.
Yesterday we had discussed three scenarios;
(a) Prices breaks above 20400 then we will buy with a stop just below 20100.
(b) Prices breaks below 20000 then we will sell with a stop just above 20300.
(c) Prices remain trading inside 20000 – 20400 then we will avoid trading.
These are still valid and we are advising our readers to follow these and trade accordingly.
|BATAINDIA||499||BUY||Intermediate trend is up in BATAINDIA. The stock has seen an upside rally and then started a minor correction. That correction is now finding support near 490. We may see an upside rally here. Buy this stock above 500. If this trade executes then place your stop just below 490 and a target near 520.|
|HDFC||1399||BUY||Intermediate and short term trend is up in HDFC. The stock has seen an upside rally and then started trading range bound. We may see a breakout here. Buy this stock above 1400. If this trade executes then place your stop just below 1390 and a target near 1420.|
|Stock Name||Strike Price||Buy/Sell||CMP||Initiation||Stop Loss||Target||Remarks|
|APOLLOTYRE||FEB FUT||SELL||176||BELOW 176||179.5||170||OI Increase|
|Long Buildup||Short Buildup|
|Stocks||Price||Price%||OI %||OI||Stocks||Price||Price%||OI %||OI|
|BHARTIARTL.17.02 Feb||368.9||3.23||2.47||39689900||TATAMTRDVR.17.02 Feb||289.25||-8.77||9.79||19101600|
|GODREJCP.17.02 Feb||1607.5||3.16||1.08||526000||TATAMOTORS.17.02 Feb||469.75||-7.22||12.41||39967500|
|IDBI.17.02 Feb||84.3||2.93||10.56||26208000||NMDC.17.02 Feb||138.9||-4.47||2.09||19386000|
|APOLLOHOSP.17.02 Feb||1252||2.84||4.8||751200||HINDZINC.17.02 Feb||304.45||-3.52||14.8||10054400|
|GAIL.17.02 Feb||494.9||2.66||6.75||10627500||MINDTREE.17.02 Feb||453.1||-3.49||2.05||3230400|
|Short Covering||Long Unwinding|
|ONGC.17.02 Feb||1.79||-0.57||38467500||196.25||HINDPETRO.17.02 Feb||546||-5.04||-0.6||21245700|
|RCOM.17.02 Feb||1.78||-0.76||1.06E+08||34.25||BPCL.17.02 Feb||693.05||-3.09||-1.28||10750800|
|BATAINDIA.17.02 Feb||1.27||-1.59||3413300||501.05||JSWSTEEL.17.02 Feb||182.3||-2.88||-0.03||47532000|
|OIL.17.02 Feb||0.78||-2.18||2343044||336.75||PTC.17.02 Feb||84.1||-2.44||-0.61||18360000|
|PETRONET.17.02 Feb||0.61||-0.32||7455000||384.9||DISHTV.17.02 Feb||87.65||-2.07||-0.22||37394000|
TOP DELIVERY PERCENTAGE
|Stocks||Price||%Chg||Vol||Delivery||Del %||% Change|
|Hero MotoCorp Limited||3162.95||-1.97||420128||310528||80.46||Nifty 50||8792.3||-0.14||83436|
|Bharti Airtel Limited||368.95||3.04||4271242||2516321||76.1||Nifty Bank||20258.1||0.03||83436|
|NTPC Limited||170.85||-0.96||4311748||4542154||73.85||Nifty IT||10474.1||0.2||83436|
|HDFC Ltd.||1398.15||0.44||1564027||1205062||73.53||INDIA VIX||13.8||0.82||83433|
|Grasim Ind Ltd.||1011||1.07||1521072||1414965||72.3||Nifty Energy||10728.85||0.23||83436|
|ITC Ltd.||270.8||0.07||6655626||6214914||69.3||Nifty Realty||192.6||-0.72||83436|
|Infosys Limited||987.7||0.34||4669409||4728443||68.91||Nifty Auto||9820.6||-1.53||83436|
|Kirloskar Cummins Ltd.||885.55||1.34||243134||101751||68.81||Nifty Metal||3055.45||-0.9||83436|
|Power Grid Corporation o||200.85||-1.08||5289337||3678193||68.77||Nifty Media||2993.55||-0.93||83436|
UPCOMING ECONOMIC DATA
|•Quarterly GDP (Q4) (YoY) on 28th Feb, 2017.
•IIP Data (YoY) on 10th March, 2017.
|•US Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) on 15th Feb, 2017.
•US Crude Oil Inventories on 15th Feb, 2017.
|•Mahindra & Mahindra will launch two new utility vehicles next financial year in addition to upgrades to the existing range, as it looks to protect market share in its core utility vehicle segment.
•Mahindra Aerostructures has partnered with French firm Segnere SAS to collaborate on airframe manufacturing opportunities and expand capabilities for the global aerospace market.
•Standard & Poor’s has downgraded IDBI Bank to ‘BB’ citing “very weak asset quality” but maintained a stable outlook on the state-run lender.
•Petronet LNG Ltd, India’s largest liquefied natural gas importer, has bought a 26 percent stake in the shipping consortium that built its biggest LNG ship to transport gas form from Australia.
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard
|Company Name||Purpose||Meeting Date||Company Name||Purpose||Meeting Date|
|Company Name||Purpose||Ex-Date||Company Name||Purpose||Ex-Date|
|GULFOILLUB||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 3.5000||15-Feb-17||JAYAGROGN||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 5.0000||16-Feb-17|
|INDIANHUME||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.0000||15-Feb-17||KALECONSUL||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 11.0000||16-Feb-17|
|NTPC||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.6100||15-Feb-17||MANAPPURAM||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 0.5000||16-Feb-17|
|POLYMED||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.0000||15-Feb-17||MENONBE||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.0000||16-Feb-17|
|AMRUTANJAN||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.1000||16-Feb-17||MINDAIND||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.2000||16-Feb-17|
|AVTNPL||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 0.2000||16-Feb-17||PAGEIND||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 25.0000||16-Feb-17|
|BHARATFORG||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 2.5000||16-Feb-17||POWERGRID||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 1.0000||16-Feb-17|
|BOSCHLTD||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 75.0000||16-Feb-17||SELAN||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 5.0000||16-Feb-17|
|COMPUAGE||Stock Split From Rs.10/- to Rs.2/-||16-Feb-17||SHBCL||Interim Dividend – Rs. – 0.2500||16-Feb-17|
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